Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding a Political Crisis

Dakar/Brussels, 28 March 2007: The April general elections in Nigeria must be transparent and credible if the country and the region are to make progress towards achieving peace and stability.

Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding a Political Crisis,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, analyses the approaching vote, which is one of the most important challenges the country has ever faced. Success would offer Nigeria the first opportunity to achieve a genuine constitutional succession from one civilian administration to another since independence in 1960, thus consolidating democracy. Failure could provoke violent rejection of the results by wide sections of the populace, denial of legitimacy and authority to the new government, intensification of the insurgency in the Niger Delta and its possible extension to other areas, with potential for wider West African destabilisation.

“The election will have to provide reliable results if it is to improve the country’s democracy and promote its image within the African Union and beyond”, says Nnamdi Obasi, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst in Nigeria. “This vote is also an opportunity for Nigeria to take a step forward in solving the many internal conflicts that persistently threaten to reignite new focuses of violence”.

The political situation in the country is already unstable, particularly after the exclusion of Vice President Atiku Abubakar from the ballot due to politically-motivated corruption charges supported by President Olusegun Obasanjo, who last year tried, unsuccessfully, to change the constitution so that he could serve a third term. The electoral process is endangered by Obasanjo’s “do or die” desperation to ensure the victory of his hand-picked candidate of the People’s Democratic Party’s, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. It is also threatened by the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) lack of credibility, as its officials are under heavy influence from the presidency.

The African Union (AU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) should urgently dispatch a joint mediation team to Nigeria to resolve the dispute between Obasanjo and Abubakar and avoid a post-electoral political crisis. The president should respect INEC’s independence and provide approved funds to execute its mandate. INEC must guarantee the transparency of the process by cooperating with national and international election monitors to ensure that electoral fraud does not take place.

“If the results are unaccepted and disputed, violence may erupt and escalate into a more serious conflict”, says Crisis Group’s West Africa Project Director, Carolyn Norris. “The electoral frauds that took place in 1965 and 1983 undermined the legitimacy of the governments that emerged, leading to longer term instability. The stability of the whole region may well depend on political developments in Nigeria over the coming weeks”.