Nigeria: Failed Elections, Failing State?, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the implications of the country’s electoral injustice in April 2007, which is undermining Nigeria’s status as a democracy and weakening its position as a broker of peace across the African continent. The report calls on President Umaru Yar’Adua to reach out to the opposition to form an inclusive government of national unity, in which all major parties are represented.
“Nigeria’s democracy has derailed”, says Crisis Group Senior Analyst Nnamdi Obasi. “Yar’Adua has to understand that no number of overtures will satisfy the opposition unless and until his administration seriously confronts all the institutional failures that must be redressed if Nigeria is to escape collapse and widespread violence.”
The out-going administration of Olusegun Obasanjo declared the 2007 elections as a success, constituting the first-ever civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in Nigeria’s history. In reality the transition to a hand-picked successor through a flawed election was more like a dynastic succession, and it has been denounced not only by opposition leaders but even by members of the triumphant People’s Democratic Party. Yar’Adua assumed the presidency on 29 May with less legitimacy than any previous president and thus has less capacity to moderate and resolve Nigeria’s violent domestic conflicts.
Pre-existing tensions in the Niger Delta and demands in the south east for Biafran separatism have been exacerbated over recent months due to diminished civilian confidence in governing institutions. Resolving these issues requires a government that enjoys legitimacy and respect in the eyes of its people and can enlist their cooperation.
To stave off this brewing crisis, Yar’Adua must work with the opposition to form an inclusive government of national unity and not by co-opting individuals but rather by accepting their own official nominees. His administration must also establish an independent inquiry to identify responsibility for fraudulent electoral practices.
The Senate should launch a judicial inquiry into election commission’s financial management, and the UN, US and the EU should give material and technical aid to future election tribunals adjudicating transparency.
Concerted measures are required within the next few weeks to heal the most evident wounds of the elections”, says Francois Grignon, Crisis Group’s Director of Africa Program. “Immediate steps must be taken to build government legitimacy if Nigeria is to be pulled back from the brink of state failure.
The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation covering over 50 crisis-affected countries and territories across four continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.
Pre-existing tensions in the Niger Delta and demands in the south east for Biafran separatism have been exacerbated over recent months due to diminished civilian confidence in governing institutions. Resolving these issues requires a government that enjoys legitimacy and respect in the eyes of its people and can enlist their cooperation.
To stave off this brewing crisis, Yar’Adua must work with the opposition to form an inclusive government of national unity and not by co-opting individuals but rather by accepting their own official nominees. His administration must also establish an independent inquiry to identify responsibility for fraudulent electoral practices. The Senate should launch a judicial inquiry into election commission’s financial management, and the UN, US and the EU should give material and technical aid to future election tribunals adjudicating transparency.
“Concerted measures are required within the next few weeks to heal the most evident wounds of the elections”, says Francois Grignon, Crisis Group’s Director of Africa Program. “Immediate steps must be taken to build government legitimacy if Nigeria is to be pulled back from the brink of state failure.”
